Pro-EU Maia Sandu ahead in Moldovan election in setback for Kremlin | Moldova

The pro-western incumbent Maia Sandu is leading in the Moldovan presidential election, preliminary results have shown, marking a significant boost for the country’s EU aspirations and a clear rebuke to Moscow.

Moldovans voted on Sunday in a runoff election seen as a crucial indicator of whether the country’s long-term geopolitical alignment would be with Russia or Europe.

The pro-western incumbent, Maia Sandu, who has intensified the nation’s efforts to break away from Moscow’s influence, was facing the Kremlin-friendly political newcomer, Alexandr Stoianoglo, from the Socialist party, in the second round of voting on Sunday.

With 86% of the votes counted, Sandu is leading by a narrow margin of 1%. However, with half of the diaspora votes still outstanding, analysts predict that Sandu is all but guaranteed to win re-election.

Early results indicate that the large Moldovan diaspora, accounting for about 20% of the electorate, is overwhelmingly voting for Sandu.

The results would be a significant boost for Sandu and her long-term EU agenda.

Sandu’s position was weakened after a referendum she initiated, asking Moldovans whether they supported EU integration, that was passed by only the tiniest of margins on 20 October. The referendum was held alongside the first round of the presidential elections where Sandu received 42% of the ballot but failed to win an outright majority.

The election outcome will be welcomed in Brussels a week after Georgia, another ex-Soviet state hoping to join the EU, re-elected a party viewed by most countries as increasingly Moscow-friendly and authoritarian.

The EU has promised a €1.8bn multiyear package for Moldova to help it on the accession path which the country officially began in June. Sandu has pledged to “work night and day” to take Moldova into the EU by 2030.

Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Moldova has gravitated between pro-western and pro-Russian courses. But under Sandu, a former World Bank adviser, the impoverished country has accelerated its push to escape Moscow’s orbit as the war in neighbouring Ukraine continues.

Both presidential election rounds as well as the EU referendum vote were marred by accusations of Russian interference.

For months, Sandu and her allies have accused Russia and its proxies of leading a large-scale campaign involving vote-buying and misinformation to sway the election.

Officials in the capital of Chișinău believe that Moscow invested approximately $100m (£77.2m) before the first vote and had reportedly smuggled in some of the funds by “money mules” detained by police at the main airport while carrying bundles of €10,000 (£8,390) in cash.

Sandu’s team said it intensified efforts to prevent a repeat of what they described as a large-scale vote-buying scheme orchestrated by the Russian-backed fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor during the first round.

“Moldova has had a monumental task before it: just two weeks to stop a sprawling Kremlin-backed vote-buying scheme that proved effective in the twin vote on 20 October,” said Olga Rosca, a foreign policy adviser to Sandu.

Still, on Sunday, Sandu’s national security adviser, Stanislav Secrieru, wrote on X that they were “seeing massive interference by Russia in our electoral process … an effort with high potential to distort the outcome”.

“Cybersecurity agency reports the Central Election Commission’s voter education site was temporarily down this morning due to a DDoS attack,” Secrieru added.

The Kremlin has denied interfering in the vote.

“We resolutely reject any accusations that we are somehow interfering in this. We are not doing this,” the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

The tight result of the EU referendum has weakened Sandu’s standing, placing her in direct opposition to Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general who exceeded expectations with 26% of the vote on the Party of Socialists’ ticket.

In last weekend’s presidential debate, Sandu accused Stoianoglo of being a “Trojan horse” candidate for outside interests bent on seizing control of Moldova.

Stoianoglo has denied working on behalf of Russia. In an interview with the Guardian in October, he claimed that he was in favour of joining the EU but boycotted the vote, calling it a parody.

He has also declined to criticise the Kremlin for its invasion of Ukraine and called for improved relations with Moscow. “The level of Russian interference in Moldova is highly exaggerated,” he said, adding that he would seek a “reset of relations” with Moscow.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked many in Chișinău, which is just a few hours’ drive from Ukraine’s Black Sea port city of Odesa, and the Kremlin’s shadow looms large. Moscow has 1,500 troops stationed in Transnistria, a region run by pro-Russian separatists who broke away from Moldova’s government in a brief war in the 1990s.

Ukraine, whose president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has repeatedly praised Sandu, will breathe a sigh of relief, as many in Kyiv have been anxious about the prospect of a Russia-friendly president leading the country that borders them.