United States stock indexes were trading flat to lower on Monday, as investors braced for a pivotal week for global markets in which Americans will elect a new president and the Federal Reserve is likely to cut its benchmark policy rate.
Caution prevailed as the winner of the tightly contested election between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump might not be known for days after the voting ends on Tuesday.
Some of the so-called “Trump trades” lost ground after a recent poll showed Harris leading in Iowa, triggering a retreat in US dollar, bond yields and Bitcoin.
Harris’s odds have improved on several betting sites, an election indicator that many market participants watch closely.
“This is the biggest event for markets for the year … but we think it’s wisest not to make big [investment] bets,” said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede.
Choppy trading is likely in the wait for the election outcome and due to a lack of clarity on the policy implications.
“We’re bracing for volatility and maybe looking for some opportunities around the edges,” Reynolds said.
CBOE’s VIX measure of expected equity volatility is trading at 22.39, well above its 30-day moving average of 19.44. It is, however, still significantly below the range of 31.8 to 41 it was trading at in the week ahead of the 2020 election.
Stocks viewed as bets on a Trump win slipped. Trump Media & Technology Group was last down 2 percent and software developer Phunware, which designed an app for Trump’s campaign, in 2020 fell 8.3 percent.
Investors, meanwhile, remained largely sure of a 25 basis point interest-rate cut by the US Fed in its November meeting, whose decision is expected on Thursday.
Ninety minutes after the start of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 108.63 points, or 0.26 percent, to 41,943.56, the S&P 500 gained 2.54 points, or 0.04 percent, to 5,731.34 and the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 20.00 points, or 0.11 percent, to 18,219.92.
An index of energy stocks rose 1.6 percent as oil prices rose more than 2 percent after OPEC+ delayed plans to increase output.
All three major indexes had declined for the week on Friday, as mixed earnings from technology megacaps led to losses in some of Wall Street’s largest companies.
Most megacap stocks lost ground on Monday, with Tesla dropping 2.4 percent as the electric vehicle maker’s China-made product sales fell in October.
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