Aidan O’Brien’s gamble to end hoodoo with City Of Troy gets lost in Californian dirt | Horse racing

The most predictable line in the aftermath of the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday was the one where Aidan O’Brien blamed himself for City Of Troy’s failure to run to form – or, let’s face it, to run any kind of race at all – in the meeting’s showpiece event.

“He lost it at the start and obviously I didn’t have him prepared to come out quick enough,” O’Brien said. “We thought we did, but we didn’t. He missed it and left Ryan [Moore] with no chance, really.”

It was textbook O’Brien and, as it often is, overly self-critical. It goes without saying that a tardy start did nothing to help City Of Troy’s cause, but the pace in the 14‑runner race on Saturday was ridiculously strong – 44.96sec for the first half-mile, the fastest in the Classic’s 41-year history. It was being set up for a closer, and Sierra Leone, the eventual winner, went into the first turn a half-length behind City Of Troy, before emerging around a length in front.

What happened next told the real story of City Of Troy’s race. With nearly three-quarters of a mile to travel, Sierra Leone was up to cruising speed and had effectively already started the run that would carry him to the lead at the top of the stretch. He made ground steadily and smoothly all the way down the back, and left City Of Troy toiling in his wake.

City Of Troy could have trapped like a greyhound, but the bottom line is simply that he did not act on the dirt. He did not like the kickback, and could not, or would not, reach the high cruising speed that carried him to a front‑running success in the International Stakes in August.

O’Brien’s record with runners in the Classic on dirt is now 0-16 but, on the basis that you learn more from failure than you do from success, this latest reverse is sure to inform his next attempt to break his Classic hoodoo.

We know, after all, that it is possible to win the Classic with a turf horse making his debut on the surface, because André Fabre did just that with Arcangues in 1993. But Arcangues was a five-year-old with 15 starts in the book when he won at Santa Anita. He had also had just two (unsuccessful) starts since May before heading to the US.

To maximise his chance of winning a Classic, O’Brien probably needs a top-class, dirt-bred four‑year‑old whose whole season is built around the Breeders’ Cup, perhaps including a previous run on the surface – and how many of those is he likely to get when top-class European racing is entirely on turf and his owners’ business plan is built around three‑year‑old Classic winners?

But past form suggests that O’Brien and “the lads” in the Coolmore syndicate will not stop trying if they think they have a chance. They could have run City Of Troy in the Turf, but tilted at the bigger, bolder prize instead. They gambled and lost, but most punters would say fair play to them for trying.